EURUSD – Structure Breakdown & Bearish Continuation Bias

HTF - D1 View

Price is still operating inside a larger bearish channel, with every major rally acting as a corrective move rather than a trend shift.

After the mid-leg recovery from the lows at 1.16620, price transitioned into a bearish flag / consolidation phase on H4, which is textbook exhaustion inside a downtrend.

That flag broke cleanly below support after hitting the bearish channel resistance, confirming weakness at the top of the structure.

📝 Key confluences:

🔻 RSI bearish divergence building through successive lower momentum highs
🔻 MA (20/50) compression and crossover, signaling loss of bullish continuation
🔻 Breakdown below flag support = structural shift back to downside
🔻 US rising yield = stronger dollar

Breakout confirmation is already in play on H4, with LTF alignment supporting continuation.

📉Bias: Bearish continuation

As long as price holds below the below Bearish Flag structure, the market is positioned for continuation toward:

◘ SR1: ~1.1665 (first reaction / retest zone)
◘ SR2: ~1.1610 (mid liquidity pocket)
◘ SR3: ~1.1450 (macro channel support / deeper sweep zone)

Any pullback into the broken flag or MA zone is not strength — it’s liquidity for continuation selling.

⚠️ Invalidation:
A sustained reclaim above Bearish Flag resistance and MA cluster would delay bearish continuation and shift structure back into range conditions.

📌 Bottom line:
This is not a reversal environment. It’s a continuation leg inside a broader downtrend — rallies exist to be sold, not chased.

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