XAUUSD (Gold) – Ascending Triangle Bearish Breakdown

HTF - D1 View

TVC:GOLD continues to respect the broader bearish structure despite the temporary recovery from the recent lows.

After completing the projected move from the previous descending triangle breakdown , price reacted aggressively from the D1 support zone and formed a double bottom reversal , leading to a short-term bullish recovery.

That recovery later transitioned into an ascending triangle formation on H4 — typically viewed as a bullish continuation structure. However, the problem with the move was momentum.

📝 Key observations:

🔻 Price failed to print a convincing new HH on HTF
🔻 RSI showed bearish divergence , signaling weakening bullish pressure
🔻 Gap fill completed, followed by immediate rejection
🔻 Price rejected near dynamic MA resistance
🔻 Ascending trendline support has now been broken

The current breakdown suggests the bullish recovery may have only been corrective within the broader bearish market structure.

We are now seeing:
🔻 Loss of short-term bullish structure
🔻 Momentum shifting back bearish on lower timeframes
🔻 Sellers stepping in after liquidity above recent highs was taken

📉 Bias: Bearish
As long as price remains below the broken ascending structure and MA-50 (D1), continuation towards the:

◘ D1 support zone
◘ Previous reaction lows - remains the higher probability scenario.

The projected move aligns with the classical measured target of the ascending triangle failure.

⚠️ Invalidation:
A reclaim above the recent H4 highs and sustained hold above resistance would weaken the bearish continuation outlook.

Bottom line:
The market failed where bulls needed strength most — at breakout continuation. Failure to create a new higher high after a recovery structure is often an early warning that the move lacks real institutional conviction.

View original analysis on TradingView